2020 wasn’t type to Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys working again completed with profession lows in dashing yards, dashing touchdowns, makes an attempt per recreation and yards per try. Ezekiel Elliott fantasy hopes had been dashed, together with season-long prop bettors who took overs.
Accidents to the offensive line created big holes and evaporated dashing lanes. A season-ending harm to Dak Prescott erased the Cowboys’ passing menace and created stacked containers.
DraftKings Sportsbook has launched season-long dashing yard totals for a swath of gamers, together with Elliott. Let’s check out the dashing totals, circumstances for betting the over and underneath and Ezekiel Elliott fantasy implications.
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Ezekiel Elliott 2021 Dashing Yards Complete
DraftKings Sportsbook has Elliott’s season-long dashing prop is ready at 1150.5 yards (over ). With a brand new 17-game common season, that’s a per-game common of 67.7 yards per recreation– simply 2.Four yards over his 2020 per-game common. A very good rule of thumb when contemplating working again totals is that they are going to miss a begin or two.
In 5 seasons, Elliott has began all 16 video games simply as soon as (2019) and has began 15 video games 3 times. Lacking only one recreation in 2021 can be a per-game common of 71.9 yards. If we settle for that, Zeke would have completed ninth in rush yards per recreation in 2020. Nevertheless, that may be his second-worst per-game common of his profession.
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The Case For Betting The Over
Essentially the most rapid case for taking up Zeke’s 1150.5 dashing yards is the return of Dak Prescott and, in flip, the steadiness to Dallas’ offense. In 2020 underneath Andy Dalton, the Cowboys had been Fifth-worst in internet air yards per cross try and Eighth-worst in passer ranking. Prescott led the NFL in passer ranking and yards earlier than his harm. With out the worry of a deadly passing recreation, defenses had been capable of stack the field and shut Zeke’s working lanes down. With Prescott again within the lineup, it frees up working lanes for Elliott.
Whereas backup Tony Pollard ate up a few of Zeke’s touches in 2020, the Cowboys will certainly look to Elliott usually and early to take a few of the strain off Dak. It’s value noting, nonetheless, that Dallas faces the seventh-hardest energy of schedule for working backs in Weeks 1-4. That determine comes from fantasy factors allowed a season in the past (yards, touchdowns, receptions).
Regardless of having an additional recreation, Ezekiel Elliott performs about 15 video games per yr. At that tempo to hit 1,150.5 yards, Zeke would want a 14.9% improve in dashing yards. He noticed 13.7% much less carries in 2020 than his profession common and had 11.1% fewer yards per carry than his profession common. With all of those figures pointing towards a optimistic regression in practically each class, we are able to anticipate Ezekiel Elliott to return near– if not over– his projected dashing whole.
The Case For Betting The Beneath
Ezekiel Elliott’s dashing yards have by no means been higher than his rookie season, the place he amassed a league-leading 1,631 dashing yards on 322 carries (108.7 yards per recreation). Since then, he missed six video games his sophomore yr (suspension) after which led the NFL in dashing with 1,434 yards on 304 carries. Since then, his yards per carry has declined each season.
One other main issue that would have an effect on Ezekiel Elliott fantasy expectations and his yardage output is his declining makes an attempt per recreation. In his first three seasons, Zeke averaged 22 makes an attempt per recreation. In 2019, that quantity dropped to 18.eight makes an attempt per recreation after which a career-low 16.Three in 2020. The figuring out issue? Dallas drafted working again Tony Pollard in 2019, who has seen 101 and 129 whole touches. That’s brought about Pollard to be schemed into a number of packages and takes Zeke off the sector extra usually.
Transferring into 2021, Tony Pollard ought to see, at minimal, his 2020 work. Pollard really recorded extra yards per contact than Zeke in each seasons with the group.
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Ezekiel Elliott Dashing Yards: The place To Go From Right here?
The apparent reply right here is to purchase again into Ezekiel Elliott fantasy inventory. Simply as soon as in his profession has Zeke averaged fewer than 84 yards per recreation (his 2020 season, which included a banged-up line and an injured Dak). Even should you common out his earlier career-low yards per recreation (2019, 84.eight yards/recreation) and his 2020 per-game common (65.3)– making a bottom-third season for Zeke– his per-game common is sufficient to break the 1,150.5 at 16 video games.
The one query left to ask your self is whether or not Elliott will play 16 video games and whether or not you consider Prescott will preserve the offense among the many higher tier within the league.